Murder Estimates

Numerous studies and estimates have been made on the genocide committed in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.  It is difficult to determine the actual number of people murdered. Estimates vary widely.
  
Some of the estimates are listed below.
Second Indochina War (1960-75): 4 200,000 [make link]
Vietnam War (1965-73): 1 700,000
  • Most historians of the Second Indochina War concern themselves primarily with the American Phase of the conflict, 1965-73; however, many do not specify whether their estimated death tolls cover only this phase of the war or the whole thing. An asterisk(*) indicates that the number seems to cover the entire conflict rather than just the American Phase, but check the "Sources" section to see exactly which years are covered by each authority:
  • South Vietnam military
    • 181,483 (Gilbert)
    • 185,000 to 225,000 (Britannica)
    • 220,357 (Lewy, Ency. Americana)
    • 223,748 (Summers; also 3 April 1995 AP)
    • 224,000 (Kutler, Olson)
    • 250,000 (Clodfelter, Grenville*)
    • 254,257 (Wallechinsky*, COWP [1965-75])
    • 650,000 (Small & Singer)
    • [MEDIAN: 224,000]
  • North Vietnamese military and Viet Cong
    • 444,000 (Ency. Americana)
    • 500,000 (S&S)
    • 660,000 (Olson)
    • 666,000 (Lewy, with the possibility that as many as 222,000 (1/3) of these were actually SVN civilians mistaken for VC)
    • 666,000 (Summers)
    • 700,000 (COWP [DRV 1965-75])
    • 700,000-1,000,000 (Wallechinsky*)
    • 900,000 (Britannica; Grenville*)
    • 922,290 (Gilbert [NVN soldiers + civilians + VC])
    • 1,000,000 (Clodfelter)
    • 1,100,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [1954-75])
    • [MEDIAN: starred*: 1,000,000. unstarred: 666,000]
  • South Vietnamese civilians
    • 50,000 (Gilbert)
    • 250,000 (Olson)
    • 287,000 (Clodfelter = 247,600 war deaths + 38,954 assassinated by NLF)
    • 300,000 (Kutler; Summers)
    • 340,000 (Lewy's estimate, with the possibility that an additional 222,000 counted as VC (above) belong in this category)
    • 430,000 (The Sen. E. Kennedy Commission, according to Lewy, Olson)
    • 522,000 (Wallechinsky*)
    • 1,000,000 (Britannica [in both North and South]; Eckhardt; Grenville*)
    • 2,000,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [N&S, 1954-75],)
    • [MEDIAN: starred*: ca. 1,500,000. unstarred: 300,000]
  • North Vietnamese civilians: 65,000 (Kutler, Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky) by American bombing.
  • USA
    • 55,337 (Gilbert)
    • 47,378 KIA + 10,799 other = 58,177 (Official US DoD, 1964-73)
    • 58,159 (Kutler)
    • 58,153 (Wallechinsky*, COWP)
    • 58,000 (Britannica)
    • 47,244 KIA + 10,446 other = 57,690 (Olson; Summers, 1961-80)
    • 57,605 (Ency. Americana)
    • 56,146 (Lewy: 46,498 KIA + 10,388 other + 719 MIA)
    • 56,000 (S&S)
  • South Korea: 4,407 (Lewy, Olson, Summers); 4,687 (Wallechinsky, COWP); 5,000 (S&S)
  • Philippines: 1,000 (S&S)
  • Thailand: 351 (Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky); 1,000 (S&S)
  • Australia: 469 (Lewy, Summers, Olson [w/NZ]); 492 (S&S); 494 (Wallechinsky); 520 (AWM)
  • TOTAL
    • 1,021,442 (COWP)
    • 1,216,000 (military only, S&S)
    • 1,312,000 (Summers)
    • 1,353,000 (Lewy)
    • 1,520,453 (WHPSI: S. Vietnamese only, 1965-75)
    • 1,637,000 (Olson)
    • 1,721,000 (Kutler)
    • 1,749,000 (Wallechinsky*)
    • 1,800,000 (B&J*, 1960-75)
    • 2,058,000 (Eckhardt)
    • 2,163,000 (Britannica)
    • 2,500,000 (Grenville*)
    • 3,000,000 (1965-75, Chomsky* (1987))
    • >3,100,000 (Tucker*; Official VN*)
    • 3,812,000 (Obermeyer, “Fifty years of violent war deaths...”, British Medical Journal, 336:1482, 2008*)
      • margin of error: (2,207,000 to 5,942,000)
      • in contrast, Obermeyer cites earlier Uppsala/PRIO est.: 2,096,000
  • MEDIAN TOTALS
    • * Whole conflict: [MEDIAN of TOTALS: ca. 3,000,000] or [TOTAL of MEDIANS: ca. 2,850,000]
    • American Phase (unstarred): [MEDIAN of TOTALS: ca. 1,700,000] or [TOTAL of MEDIANS: ca. 1,300,000]
Sub-Wars
  • In addition to the American Phase of the War, there are four tangental conflicts which are sometimes discussed as part of the Vietnam War, but usually considered peripheral:
    1. Vietnamese Civil War, internal phase, 1960-65
      • Clodfelter, 1961-64
        • South Vietnam, military: 21,442
        • Communist: 71,000
        • Civilian: 160,000
        • TOTAL: 252,442
      • Chomsky (1987):
        • 1957-61: 66,000 VC (p.274, citing B. Fall), 80,000 Vietnamese (p.323)
        • 1961-4/65: 89,000 VC
        • to mid 1966: 60,000 ("enemy" (McNamara) - "probably" including civilians (Chomsky))
        • Total, 1954-65: 160-170,000 VNese (p.324)
      • S&S: 300,000 battle deaths, 1960-65
      • Eckhardt: 200,000 civ. + 100,000 mil. = 300,000 (1960-65)
      • COWP: 302,000
        • RVN: 300,000
        • USA: 2,000
      • Young: NLF lost 100,000 dead 1961-(?)64
      • WHPSI:
        • 21,686 deaths by political violence in South Vietnam, 1960-64
        • 4,021 from 1955 to 1959
    2. Cambodian Civil War (1970-75): 600,000
      • Chomsky (1987): half a million to a million.
      • Rummel, 1954-75:
        • War Dead: 429,000
        • Democide: 288,000
        • TOTAL: 717,000
      • Tucker: 10% of 7M [which comes to 700,000]
      • Clodfelter; also Wallechinsky (1970-75)
        • Cambodian govt.: 50,000
        • Total violent deaths, incl. Comm. and civ.: >250,000
        • Total war-related deaths, incl. hunger: 600,000
      • T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996), citing a Finnish commission: 600,000
      • MEDIAN: ca. 0.5-0.6M
      • Chirot: 500,000
      • B&J: 300,000
      • SIPRI 1989: 156,000
      • S&S, 1970-73
        • Cambodia: 150,000
        • USA: 500
        • SVietnam: 5,000
        • NVietnam: 500
        • TOTAL: 156,000
      • Eckhardt: 156,000
      • COWP
        • Cambodia: 50,000
        • USA: 500
        • SVietnam: 5,000
        • NVietnam: 500
        • TOTAL: 185,000
      • WHPSI: 55,750 k. by pol.viol., 1970-75
    3. Laos
      • Wallechinsky, 1959-75: 250,000
      • Martin Stuart-Fox A History of Laos: 200,000 by 1973, incl. 30,000 Hmong.
      • Rummel, 1954-75:
        • War Dead: 32,000
        • Democide: 38,000
        • TOTAL: 70,000
      • Obermeyer, “Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia”, British Medical Journal, 336:1482 (2008): 62,000 killed
        • in contrast, Obermeyer cites earlier Uppsala/PRIO est.: 18,000-20,000
      • Eckhardt: 12,000 civ. + 12,000 mil. = 24,000 (1960-73)
      • S&S, 1960-73
        • Laos: 5,000 (1960-62), 15,000 (1963-73)
        • USA: 500
        • NVietnam: 3,000
        • TOTAL: 23,500
      • WHPSI: 22,355 k. by pol.viol., 1963-72
      • T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996): 20,000 Meo irregulars and 15,000 Royal Lao Army
      • Harff & Gurr: 18-20,000 Meo tribemen were victims of genocide, 1963-65
    4. Vietnamese Civil War, final phase, 1973-75
      • Young, citing Pentagon estimates:
        • ARVN: 26,500 (1973) + 30,000 (1974)
        • PRG/DRV: 39,000 (1973) + 61,000 (1974)
        • Civilians: 15,000
        • [TOTAL: 171,500 killed in the "Cease-Fire War".]
  • [My guess is 3.5M for the Vietnam conflict, plus .6M for Cambodia, plus 62,000 in Laos]
Atrocities:
  • Lewy:
    • 36,725 civilians assassinated by VC/NVA, 1957-72
    • 2,800 civilians executed and 3,000 missing after Hue was captured by VC/NVA, 1968
    • 400 civilians massacred by USAns in the area of Son My village, incl. 175-200 in My Lai hamlet, 1968
    • Because of the lack of weapons recovered from many bodies, Lewy considers the possibility that up to 222,000 VC KIA may have actually been innocent bystanders. (Or maybe not. Poor evidence either way.)
  • Harff & Gurr: 475,000 civilians in NLF areas were victims of repressive politicide, 1965-72
  • Young: Hue massacre, 1968:
    • Officially: 2,800-5,700
    • Len Ackland: 300-400
  • Chomsky (1987): 21,000 VC civilian officials assassinated under US/GVN Phoenix project (-in text. Endnote gives estimates ranging 40-48,000.). Lewy considers these to be (mostly) legitimate military targets.
  • October 22, 2003 Toledo Blade: Tiger Force (US) committed ongoing atrocities in Quang Nam province, July-Nov 1967. Incomplete records show 81 murders. The unit reported 1000+ enemies killed, but it sounds like a lot of those weren't legit. From the article details, I'd guess they murdered a few hundred (300±) civilians. [http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031022/SRTIGERFORCE/110190169]
  • Hanson:
    • VN civilians k. by indiscriminate American bombing: 50,000
    • VN civilians k. by indiscriminate Communist rocketing, artillery and terrorism: 400,000
  • Rummel:
    • 51,000 democides by South Vietnam (1963-75), incl...
      • executions: 30,000
      • forced relocations: 5,000 dead
      • prison deaths: 5,000
    • 166,000 democides by NVN/VC in SVN:
      • Officials assassinated: 17,000
      • Civilians assassinated: 49,000
      • Refugees killed, 1975: 50,000
      • Misc: 50,000
    • 6,000 democides by USA
Vietnam War Sources:
  • Britannica: not specified, but the implication is that the statistics cover the entire war.
  • Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995)
  • COWP: Correlates of War Project. Covers the years 1965-75 [http://www.correlatesofwar.org/cow2%20data/WarData/InterState/Inter-State%20War%20Participants%20(V%203-0).htm]
  • Eckhardt: covers the years 1965-75 (unless otherwise noted)
  • Encyclopedia Americana (2003), "Vietnam War"
  • Grenville: does not specify which years are covered, but by context, it seems to be 1960-75
  • Hanson, Victor Davis, "Tet, January 31-April 6, 1968," Carnage and culture (2001)
  • Kutler, Stanley: Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1996)
  • Lewy, Guenter, America in Vietnam (1978): Lewy's estimates cover the years 1965-74. (u.o.n.)
  • Official VN: On the 20th Anniversary of the war's end, Hanoi announced its official tally of losses for 21 years of war: 1954-75 [3 April 1995 AP; 30 April 1995Washington Post. Herald Sun, April 5, 1995; Plain Dealer (Cleveland, Ohio), January 1, 1996; Financial Times (London,England), April 5, 1995; Xinhua News Agency, APRIL 3, 1995; United Press International, February 25, 1997. (5 Nov. 2004) See also, Common Mistake #2]
  • Olson, James: Dictionary of the Vietnam War (1988): covers the years 1965-74 (u.o.n.)
  • Summers, Harry: Vietnam War Almanac (1985)
  • Tucker, Spencer, Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1998)
  • Wallechinsky: death tolls apparently cover the years 1957-75. (u.o.n.)
  • Young, Marilyn, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991)



Cambodia, Khmer Rouge (1975-1978): 1,650,000 [make link]
  • Pol Pot's reign of terror is probably the second most widely publicized genocide of the century, so it's pretty easy to find estimates:
    • Math Ly, member of Cambodian Politburo: 3,300,000 (21 May 1987 AP)
    • Rummel: 2,000,000 domestic + 35,000 foreign democides
    • SIPRI 1989: 2,000,000
    • Elizabeth Becker When the War Was Over (1986): as many as 2,000,000
    • D. Smith: 1 to 3 million
    • Eckhardt: 1,500,000 civ. + 500,000 mil. = 2,000,000
    • War Annual 6: 2,000,000
    • Kutler, Stanley: Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1996): 2M
    • Courtois, Stephane, Le Livre Noir du Communism: 1,300,000 to 2,300,000
    • Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995): 1,200,000 to 2,000,000
    • Wallechinsky: between 1 and 2 million.
    • Dict.Wars: 1M ("Cambodian Civil War of 1970-75") to 2M ("Kampuchean Civil War of 1978-98")
    • P. Johnson: 1,200,000.
    • Marie Martin, Cambodia, a Shattered Society (1994) cites:
      • US State Dept.: 1.2-1.8M
      • Demographer En Meng Try: 1.0-1.2M
    • Encarta: "...may have caused more than 1 million..."
    • Chandler, David, Brother Number One (1992): "conservative estimate" of 800,000 to 1,000,000.
    • Marilyn Young, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991): in the text she gives the range of estimates as 0.7 to 2.0 M. In a footnote, she favorably cites Michael Vickery's estimate of 700,000 to 1,000,000.
    • Chomsky (1987): 750,000, citing Vickery.
  • These are the numbers quoted in Pol Pot's 1998 obituaries:
    • "more than 1 million" (New York Times, Newsweek, Time)
    • "1.5 million or more" (Washington Post)
    • "up to 2 million" (U.S. News and World Reports)
  • Ben Kiernan in The Pol Pot Regime (also in "The Cambodian Genocide", Century of Genocide: Eyewitness Accounts and Critical Views, Samuel Totten, editor, 1997) estimates 1,671,000 (21%) killed out of a population of 7,890,000, including...
    • Vietnamese: 10,000 (100%)
    • Chinese: 215,000 (50%)
    • Lao: 4,000 (40%)
    • Thai: 8,000 (40%)
    • Cham: 90,000 (36%)
    • Urban Khmer: 500,000 (25%)
    • Rural Khmer: 825,000 (16%)
  • Average: If we take these 25 estimates and figure that "more than" means 20% more, while "up to" means 20% less, and "between" means dead center, then both the median and mean of all these estimates is 1.6M